Estudios Económicos- La producción industrial mejora, pero la manufactura se desacelera en septiembre

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Lorena Dominguez, Economista Senior de HSBC México

- En septiembre la producción industrial creció ligeramente por cuarto mes consecutivo en términos ajustados estacionalmente. El alza fue de 0.4% en el noveno mes del año, frente a agosto.

- La manufactura registró una baja moderada, en términos ajustados estacionalmente, aunque mantiene una tendencia al alza. La baja de este mes fue debido a caídas en los componentes relacionados con equipo de transporte, textiles, ropa, muebles y materiales impresos. Esperamos que este sector mantenga su crecimiento en los próximos meses, aunque a un paso moderado.

- La construcción registró una recuperación de la caída en agosto, en términos ajustados estacionalmente. Como se esperaba, la edificación mostró un mayor dinamismo, pero los proyectos de infraestructura se mantienen estancados, a pesar de haber mostrado un ligero crecimiento este mes.

- La minería creció modestamente en términos ajustados estacionalmente, gracias a actividades relacionadas con la extracción de petróleo, gas y minerales, aunque la tendencia es a la baja, debido a los bajos niveles de producción petrolera.

HSBC Global Research    

Mexico

Industrial production improves, but manufacturing slowed in September

September's industrial production increased for the fourth month in a row in seasonally adjusted terms, though at a slow pace. This increase was explained by three out of the four components. Construction recovered from the previous month's drop on the back of higher dynamism in edification; while civil engineering remains soft and with gloomy perspectives as public spending cuts may continue to restrain public construction. Manufacturing dropped but trend is still positive and we expect it to continue that way in the coming months.

Facts

In September, industrial production increased 0.4% with respect to August in seasonally adjusted terms. This result came above our estimate and close to consensus expectations (HSBC: -0.5%; Consensus: 0.3%). This month's reading shows mixed results in the components. Mining, construction and utilities increased 0.2%, 0.5% and 1.0% m-o-m, while manufacturing dropped 0.2% m-o-m.

On a y-o-y basis, industrial production increased 1.7%. This result came above our and consensus expectations (HSBC: 0.4%; Consensus: 1.2%). This month's reading shows that manufacturing, construction and utilities increased 3.3%, 4.0% and 4.1% y-o-y, respectively. In contrast, mining dropped 5.1% y-o-y.

Industrial production breakdown

Source: INEGI

Implications

In September, industrial production grew for the fourth month in a row in seasonally adjusted terms. This increase was explained by three out of the four components.

Construction recovered from August's drop in seasonally adjusted terms, though the trend maintains a soft upward pattern, suggesting that the recovery of this sector remains slow. As expected, edification showed more dynamism, but civil engineering works remain stagnant in spite of this month's mild growth. In addition, the outlook for the latter remains gloomy as public spending cuts may continue to restrain public construction. In this regard, the Ministry of Finance recently published September's results of public expenditure, which reflected that physical investment dropped 34.7% y-o-y during the month and 7.6% from January to September this year.

Mining grew modestly in seasonally adjusted terms on the back of increases in activities related to the extraction of oil, gas and minerals, though the trend remains to the downside due to the low levels of oil production, which have dropped this year to 2.2 million barrels per day (mbpd) from 2.4mbpd in 2014.

Manufacturing dropped moderately in seasonally adjusted terms, though it maintains an upward trend. In particular, the components that led this month's fall were the ones related to transport equipment, textile products, apparel, furniture and printed materials. We expect this sector to keep on growing in the coming months, though at a more moderate pace.

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