- En junio las ventas al por
menor registraron un alza de 1.1% con respecto a mayo con cifras ajustadas por
estacionalidad, confirmando así que el consumo privado continuó recuperándose
en el segundo trimestre del 2015. La cifra estuvo por arriba de las
expectativas de mercado (HSBC: 0.6%, Consenso: 0.4%).
- En términos anuales, las ventas
al por menor incrementaron 5.4% en junio, en línea con nuestra estimación de
5.5%.
- Algunos indicadores adelantados
relacionados con el consumo mantuvieron su dinamismo en julio. Por ejemplo, las
ventas de la Asociación Nacional de Tiendas de Autoservicio y Departamentales
(ANTAD), continuaron registrando buenos resultados, mientras que las ventas de
automóviles mantuvieron tasas de crecimiento de doble dígito.
- Además, la recuperación de la
masa salarial, el crecimiento de las remesas en pesos y mejores cifras de
empleo son factores adicionales de apoyo para el consumo.
- Por lo tanto mantenemos nuestra
expectativa de que el consumo privado mantendrá una tendencia positiva en los
próximos meses y podría crecer 3.2% en todo 2015.
Mexico
Retail Sales: Solid growth pace
in June
In June, retail sales came above
market expectations, registering a hefty increase in seasonally adjusted terms,
confirming that private consumption continued to recover in the 2Q15. Leading
indicators suggest that consumption maintained dynamism in July; ANTAD sales
keep on showing good results, while auto sales still registered double-digit
growth rates. Such improvement seems to be supported by the recovery in the
wage mass, growth in wage remittances in pesos and higher employment. Hence, we
keep our view that private consumption will continue to hold on in the coming
months, able to grow 3.2% in the whole 2015.
Facts
In June, retail sales increased
1.1% in seasonally adjusted terms with respect to May. This result came above
our and consensus expectations (HSBC: 0.6%; Consensus: 0.4). On an annual
basis, retail sales rose 5.4% in June, coming in line with our estimate and
above consensus expectations (HSBC: 5.5%; Consensus: 4.6%).
Retail sales
Source: INEGI
Implications
In June, retail sales increased
sharply in seasonally adjusted terms, maintaining an upward trend. This month's
result was explained by rises in several types of sales. In particular, sales
of food and beverages, healthcare articles, auto-related products and
e-commerce registered the highest expansion rates.
This month's reading is
consistent with our view that private consumption continued to recover in the
2Q15 and will keep on doing it in the remainder of the year. Some leading
consumption-related indicators signal good results in July. In particular,
ANTAD sales continued to increase at a fast pace, supported by the recovery in
the wage mass and growth in family remittances in pesos. In addition, auto sales maintained
double-digit growth rates in July, which seems to be supported by a sharp
expansion in auto credit and more confidence.
Hence, we believe that private consumption will continue to hold on in
the coming months, able to grow 3.2% in the whole year.
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